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The Covid-19 pandemic continues to affect the world economy, resulting in supply chain disruptions and high inflation around the world. In addition, the Russian-Ukrainian war has also had short- and long-term effects on global trade and the economy. Against this backdrop, almost all markets are adjusting and fluctuating, and the spunbond and spunmelt polypropylene business continues to expand.

Spunbond

The impact of the new crown epidemic on the global spunbond polypropylene nonwovens market in 2020 is huge, and as the epidemic subsides, the market adjustment in the second half of 2021 reduces demand. Just as supply chain disruptions and surging demand related to the pandemic begin to normalize in early 2022, the Russia-Ukraine war has captured global attention. This fuels inflation and other potential threats to the global economic system. Russia's actions will affect energy, raw materials and the global economy for some time.

The global spunbond/spunmelt polypropylene market is now facing a period of opportunities and challenges. In addition to the short-term economic disruption caused by the Russian-Ukrainian war, falling birth rates, rising inflation, rising interest rates and rising geopolitical tensions in most parts of the world could put further downward pressure on global demand. Significant progress has been and will continue to be made in the adoption of sustainable raw materials in nonwoven manufacturing, but this may face headwinds as societies address the economic concerns of warfare and environmental protection. Despite the uncertainty, the industry is resilient and has been able to successfully navigate the challenges and demands of the outbreak and duration of the COVID-19 crisis.

Global Capacity Demand

In 2022, new capacity is entering the market due to the installation of new highly advanced technologies and in response to surging demand from the pandemic. It is estimated that around 159,000 tonnes of new capacity will be commissioned in 2021, most of which will be Reicofil 5 technology. This capacity was ordered prior to the pandemic, and full capacity utilization was quickly achieved. In addition, about 192,000 tons of new production capacity will be commissioned in 2022, bringing the production capacity to about 5.308 million tons. Most of the equipment was ordered at the end of 2020 as infections raged. Some of the capacity that could have been commissioned in 2021 is facing delays in commissioning as supply chain disruptions, travel restrictions prevent technicians from installing and the sheer volume of new equipment ordered and waiting to be installed.

In 2023, an additional 128,000 tons of new production capacity is expected to be put into operation. Overall, around 502,000 tonnes of spunbond capacity will be commissioned between 2021 and 2025. This means that production capacity will increase by more than 10% compared to 2020. The Spunbond Polypropylene Nonwovens business is developing new, high-yield and reliable manufacturing technologies and a variety of product innovations that are attractive to end users. While these new capacity additions have had an impact on market capacity utilization, producers of this technology around the world continue to install the most modern generation technology to gain product and productivity advantages.

But product demand began to decline at the end of the third quarter of 2021 and fell sharply in the fourth quarter of 2021. Compared to 2021, demand is expected to continue to decline moderately through 2022, returning to normal in 2023. In this context, low birth rates in almost all regions of the world are expected to weigh on demand for baby diapers. During this period, the annual growth rate of adult incontinence demand will be between 5-6%.

Currently, global demand in tonnes is expected to grow at an average annual rate of around 5% from 2021 to 2026. This outlook is sensitive to macroeconomic factors, disease shocks and global unrest. South Asia (India) and Africa saw the highest demand growth, followed by Asia Pacific and China. Demand growth will be more modest in North and South America, Greater Europe and the Middle East.

Parts of the world are expected to experience an oversupply by 2024, as the full impact of the new capacity is fully felt in the market. Offsetting this capacity increase may be the shutdown of earlier technologies that were brought back into service during the pandemic. As always, the new capacity will benefit older generation technologies. Raw material costs will remain disproportionately volatile across regions. Overall, raw material costs are expected to rise.

Against this backdrop, investment in plant and equipment is likely to slow once the next round of investment occurs in 2024 due to uncertainty and rising investment costs. This expectation may be affected by the retirement of earlier generation capacity.

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